Will Israel Bomb Iran?

Geopolitical pundits are hard at work attempting to dissect and/or to at least make some sense of the Obama Administration’s perceived discomfiture with Israel. That delicate discomfiture is
immeasurably complicated by the Obama Administration’s seeming inability to construct a coherent, competent and compelling framework of international sanctions and/or policies calculated to dissuade Iran from further pursuing its nuclear aspirations.

At least one internationally aware observer has cogently –but incorrectly in my judgment- argued that “the least satisfactory and most likely” way the current impasse with Iran will be broken is by a preemptive Israeli strike against Iran. I beg to differ. Here’s why:

1. A preemptive Israeli strike would –of necessity- need to be both surgical and unequivocally decisive. It is highly unlikely and unforeseeable that Israel - despite its vaunted military know how- is capable of severely disabling and/or destroying ALL Iranian nuclear sites. That scenario is militarily, logistically and tactically implausible,
at best.

In 1981 Iraq had one nuclear facility (Osiraq) which Israel completely demolished. Iran is a wholly and demonstrably different scenario. A failed preemptive strike by Israel would be a psychological disaster for Israel. Israelis does not do well with failure. A preemptive strike which did not completely disable Iranian nuclear aspirations for a quite extended period would be clearly unacceptable to Israel. An Israeli strike
which was only partially successful would only temporarily delay reconstruction, restoration and reactivation of Iranian nuclear activities. A failed or incomplete strike would impede, but not dissuade, an already rabid Iranian President from placing more centrifuges into operation. A failed or incomplete Israeli strike would only lend further froth to Ahmadinejad’s supporters, not the least of whom may well be Iran’s Supreme Leader. Indeed, Ahmadinejad clearly serves, smiles and sneers only at the behest and/or with the imprimatur of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s ultimate authority (Rehbar). He alone wields unilateral power to declare war and/or initiate any attack against Israel.

2. Any Israeli strike against Iran –whether or not successful – would
have catastrophic economic consequences for the world as a whole and for China in particular. Any Israeli strike against Iran would immediately create chaos in the Strait of Hormuz. It is precisely through that body of water that a very substantial portion of the world’s oil is shipped. The predictable closing and/or clogging of the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting oil deprivation to much of thedeveloped world would result in astronomical oil prices per barrel. Worldwide economic disruption would be not only foreseeable, but predictable and pervasive.

That said, China imports an extremely substantial amount of its oil from Iran. China is, without the slightest doubt, not constrained to deal delicately with any scenario that places its national best interests in dire straits. Assuredly, an Israeli strike on Iran would yield an anguished uproar from the Chinese dragon. Its nostrils would flare, it would breathe fire and its talons would strike when and wherever it saw fit to protect and save China from grinding to an oil deprived industrial halt.

Moreover, Israel is but a small cog in a highly complex and unquestionably interdependent world. China and its 1.2 billion people cannot and should not be cavalierly discounted or disregarded. A readily foreseeable Chinese reaction to an Israeli strike cannot be glibly dismissed. Any Israeli strike against Iran must –of absolute necessity – factor in the Chinese response into a decision to attack Iran. Indeed, while China may not yet have a functional blue water Navy, its economic prowess is undeniable, pervasive and growing.

It is no secret that Chinese economic interests in Iran and in its oil fields are formidable. China is Iran’s biggest trading partner. In consideration of this existential circumstance, China currently still -diplomatically, but fervently- rejects any and all meaningful sanctions against Iran. With that crystal clear posture, it is unthinkable that Chinese reaction to any strike against Iran (by Israel or the USA) would result in anything less than a virulent hostility and an aggravated animosity whose consequences would be momentous, massive and memorable in the extreme.

It is one thing for Iran to threaten Israel. It is quite another matter for Israel, even indirectly and/or obliquely, to threaten China’s national well-being. And, let there be no mistake, that is precisely what a successful or even partially effective Israeli strike against Iran would do to China!

3. Any preemptive Israeli strike against Iran –no matter how egregious and damnable Iranian protestations are against Israel- would have the effect of uniting the Moslem world not only against Israel, but against the West.

Assuredly, there are those who will argue that Islam and the West are already at odds. Perhaps so. But such a distorted vision of Islam does great disservice to the many disparate, diverse, divisive and the distinctly different nature of Islam as it is practiced throughout the world.

In actual fact, the Islam of Indonesia is not the Islam of India; the Moslems of Morocco are not the Wahabi Arabs of Saudi Arabia; the Sunni Turks are not theTaliban of Afghanistan and the Pashtuns of Pakistan clearly are not the Zaidi’s of Yemen or the Shia of Iran. But they are – in the final and ultimate analysis – all Moslems. Any Israeli strike against Iran would leave no doubt that Islam would once again, much as in the days of the Prophet Mohammed, become energized into one
cohesive religion fiercely united against both Israel and the West. That is a scenario which Israel –and the West – can consciously discount only at their own respective peril.

Pointedly, terrorism is a major concern in today’s world. But an Israeli strike against Iran would yield terrorist cells and unleash terrorist attacks that would make today’s terrorism threats seem puerile and paltry.

4. The forgoing notwithstanding, Israel has managed its own nuclear wherewithal with undeniable propriety and with protective, but productive secrecy. If Israel is nuclear (and no one seriously disputes Israel’s possession of multiple dozens of nuclear weapons), then Israel already possesses a massive nuclear deterrent to any Iranian threat to attack Israel. Israel knows that, the USA knows that and Iran assuredly understands that. Iranians are not blind to what Israel did in Osiraq and that Israel saw fit to obliterate an emerging nuclear facility in Syria.

While Ahmadinejad may be rabid, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard may be reactionary, Ayatollah Khamenei may truly believe that the creation of Israel was the worst event in the history of the world, there is not a shred of credible evidence that the Iranians are suicidal. And that is precisely the scenario which would ultimately eventuate from any Iranian attack on Israel. That, in and of itself, is significant reason why Israel will think
many times before it sees fit to launch any preemptive attack on Iran. Ahmadinejad’s bellicosity may be more than bluster, but Ahmadinejad is not the boss, Khamenei is. The latter is the sole decision-maker with the unilateral power to declare war and initiate an attack on Israel. Yet, Khamenei has repeatedly demonstrated a sustained capacity to retain
power and stay alive. There is little to suggest that either Khamenei, the Revolutionary Guard or any substantive Iranian entity (exclusive of apocalyptic oriented zealots like Ahmadinejad) seek or in any wise invite their own annihilation.

So, will Israel preemptively attack Iran? I think not. But then, as the Prophet Amos famously, but inaccurately, intoned: “I am not a prophet nor the son of a prophet….” So, the undersigned is merely the firstborn son of a chef of less than international distinction.Therefore, I rely upon G.B. Shaw for a measure of guidance. He opined: “If history repeats itself and the unexpected always happens, how incapable must man be of learning from experience."

As such, the bottom line is that Israel may be expected to do the unexpected if pushed too far!

P.S. One wonders if the Obama Administration is sufficiently attuned to the Iranian tick which daily grows louder in Israeli ears?