What's Worse Than War?

“The only thing worse than war is a nuclear armed Iran!” That sabre-rattling litany is overspreading America. That notion is throbbing on main street. It is bubbling into back streets. It is pulsating on Wall Street. But does that proposition make sense? History may have something to say about that.

Before 1970 there were only five nuclear armed nations. They were the United States, Russia, China, England and France. They were the charter members of Club Nuke. They tried to blackball further membership. So, they created the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (aka NPT). Signatories could not join Club Nuke.

One hundred and ninety nations signed the NPT. Even North Korea and Iran signed the NPT. Then the pot started to boil. But neither North Korea nor Iran was stirring the pot. So who was?

India and Pakistan both refused to sign the NPT. Neither was bound by NPT provisions. In fact, India and Pakistan were already arch enemies. Neither would forego acquisition of any contrivance than might insure its survival.

So, India initiated “Operation Smiling Buddha” to develop nukes. India conducted a successful nuclear test in 1974. India characterized that test as a “peaceful nuclear explosion.” That incongruity aside, Pakistan did not stand idly by.

Pakistan had fought and lost the Indo-Pakistani War of 1965. Pakistan had reasonably anticipated –but did not get- American support.

Pakistan then fought and lost Bangladesh in the Indo-Pakistani War of 1971. Pakistan realized that it could only rely on itself. To counter India’s growing nuclear prowess, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto famously declared: “…even if we have to eat grass, we will make nuclear bombs.”

Bhutto further fulminated: “…The Christians have the bomb, the Jews have
the bomb and now the Hindus have the bomb. Why not the Muslims too have the bomb?”

Pakistan conducted a successful nuclear test in 1973. Pakistan got its atomic bomb in 1998.

That year, India conducted Operation Shatki. It resulted in a successful thermonuclear test. That prompted India to declare a “no first use” and
“retaliation only” policy. Since then, India has operated a “strategically active,but operationally dormant” nuclear policy.

Pakistan and India fought the Kargil Conflict in 1999. By then, both parties had nukes, but neither side used them. Since then, the parties have stomached a mutually suspicious détente. But the nuclear proliferation pot boiled over elsewhere.

Nukes had found their way to North Korea. True to form, North Korea was about to create another provocation.

In 1994 the United States and North Korea signed The Agreed Framework. It required Pyongyang to dismantle its nuclear reactors. They were part of a covert nuclear weapons program. In exchange, the United States supplied North Korea with fuel oil.

By 2002 the United States had learned that North Korea was violating the Agreed Framework. North Korea was covertly operating a uranium enrichment program to produce nuclear weapons. So, the U.S. suspended oil shipments.

In response, North Korea restarted its nuclear facilities. It expelled International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors. Then, North Korea simply withdrew from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Within three years North Korea detonated a nuclear device. It exploded
a second nuclear device in 2009. Predictably, the U.N. condemned the tests and imposed tighter sanctions. But North Korea’s nuclear program remained operational.

North Korea has now agreed to yet another nuclear weapons freeze. In return, the U.S.A will supply 240,000 tons of food aid. So, North Korea’s pattern continues: Bluster, Break Agreement, Brinksmanship, Blackmail, Begin Over Again.

And yet, in spite of North Korea’s repeated provocations, its relentless deception and its pathological depravity, North Korea has not fired a nuke at any adversary.

More importantly, over the strident objections of its five charter members, India, Pakistan and North Korea have been grudgingly admitted into Club Nuke. Does that suggest that Iran is preparing its own ticket for admission?

Is Iran a greater threat than North Korea? Is the Iranian regime less stable or more paranoid and fratricidal than Pakistan? Was it not Pakistan that transferred nuclear know-how to North Korea?

Admittedly, even a non-nuclear Iran is treacherous. A nuclear armed Iran would be more dangerous. But, in spite of Iran’s bellicosity, is that scenario overstated? Perhaps of necessity, nuclear empowered nations have not –thus far- permitted themselves to be frenzied, irrational or fanatical.

And yet, Iran’s anti-Israel and anti-West diatribes have been relentless, ruthless and demonic. The rantings spewing from Tehran reek with premeditation and malevolence. Iran’s habitual treachery and legendary duplicity cannot be discounted. This is especially true in light of Iranian doublespeak.

Ayatollah Khamenei long ago issued a fatwa (Islamic edict) stating that the use of nukes is against Islam. But he has also asserted with equal vehemence that Israel is a cancer which must be expunged. Khamenei and Iran cannot have it both ways. So, is Iran’s Supreme leader simply practicing the Shiite doctrine of “taqiyya?” That concept authorizes deception to achieve a greater goal.

Where does that leave us? Is a nuclear armed Iran the only thing worse than war? An adequate answer is elusive. But two decidedly apt considerations are chilling: “In nuclear war, all men are cremated equal” and “We can bomb the world to pieces, but we can’t bomb it into peace!”