Chinese Expansionism Amidst Global Slowdown

Earlier this month I spent some time in Shanghai. In due course, I became attuned to an unfortunate attitude currently emerging among some American geopolitical strategists. That position argues that China's growing military expansion poses a growing threat to invade Taiwan. I beg to differ.

While it is true that China's military (especially its navy) is rapidly expanding, the argument that the Chinese military poses a threat to Taiwan is conceptually flawed. Yes, China has long sought reunification with Taiwan. Yes, China bitterly opposes independence for Taiwan. But since Deng Xiaoping famously intoned that “It is glorious to get rich,” China has relentlessly focused upon the notion that economic clout inevitably yields geopolitical clout. As such, China has implicitly rejected foreseeable reunification with Taiwan in favor of astutely pursuing its broader goal of worldwide economic domination (subjugation may be a bit too strong).

Still, is it not time that China pundits cease making the wrong mistake (per Yogi Berra) about China’s intentions and refocus their sights away from China’s alleged military preoccupation with invading Taiwan? An invasion of Taiwan would precipitate a worldwide economic conflagration that would be diametrically contrary to China’s studiously conceived and carefully calculated economic game plan.

Most pointedly, China is, by dint of both geographical and economic predisposition, disinclined to expand territorially. As such, the growth of the Chinese military (especially its blue water navy) is primarily focused not on Taiwan, but rather on protecting China’s ever expanding economic horizons. These horizons have now been dramatically extended into the Indian Ocean and into Africa. Indeed, as early as 1993 an official of the People's Liberation Army proclaimed that: "We can no longer accept the Indian Ocean as an ocean only of the Indians." Shortly thereafter, the Chinese began their economic invasion of Africa. Indeed, it is especially in the Indian Ocean and Africa that China’s economic expansionism is most palpable and -for the fiscally faint- insidious.

It must be pointed out that China has been successfully planting its economic flag throughout Africa. At the same time, the West has -with conspicuous geopolitical myopia- been busy dangling dollars unattractively attached to conditions that amount to interference in African nations' domestic affairs. Meanwhile, China has been flooding these same African nations with copious aid devoid of strings. In payment for its aid, China has astutely exacted the right to procure the precious minerals and natural resources which it needs to fuel its (somewhat stalled, but still chugging) economic engine. In fact, it is China’s economic (not military) expansionism that has made an absolute mockery of International Monetary Fund aid and Western influence not only in Africa, but across an ever-enlarging worldwide geopolitical spectrum.

Premises considered, Taiwan is small potatoes in the broader context of China’s finely-honed economic assault on the West. The real peril posed by China’s military is not an invasion of Taiwan, but its growing -and assuredly legitimate- capacity to protect China’s dramatically expanding economic interests while continually encircling China’s economic adversaries.

When we in the West seek to expand our geopolitical and economic spheres of influence, we applaud such efforts when successful. Yet, when China (America's economic rival/competitor/adversary) acts to pursue these self-same objectives, China's behavior is all-too-often seen as ominous and perilous. Perhaps the Chinese are simply more adept at pursuing their best economic interests than the West is prepared to either acknowledge or confront.

In short, the Chinese dragon has a voracious appetite. Taiwan is –at best- an economic appetizer!