Pakistani Paranoia And The Roots Of Duplicity

Sixty-four years ago Pakistan came into being. It
was carved –some say it was sliced- out of India.
Three years later, Hans Morgenthau (then Director
of the Centre For the Study Of American Foreign
Policy at the University of Chicago) adamantly
asserted that: “Pakistan is not a nation
and hardly a state. It has no justification,
ethnic origin, language, civilization or the
consciousness of those who make up its
population. They have no interest in common
except one: fear of Hindu domination.”

In 1950 Morgenthau was right. In 2011
Morgenthau’s assessment of Pakistan is still
correct. Precious little has changed in Pakistan.
Indeed, there are only two dramatic differences
between what Pakistan was in 1947 and what it is
now in 2011.

First and most worrisome, Pakistan is now a nuclear
nation. It claims the world’s fifth largest and
fastest growing nuclear arsenal. But Pakistan’s
nukes are a subject for another day. Still, those
nukes are uncomfortably related to the other
monumental change in Pakistan.

The second dramatic change in Pakistan is
its exploding population. There are now four
times as many Pakistanis as there were in 1947.
Pakistan has the world’s second fastest growing
population. Only Bangladesh, once part of Pakistan,
is growing faster.

But more importantly, the overarching common
interest of Pakistan's multiplying masses is still
the fear of Hindu domination. That fear is best
understood as pathological paranoia. It It is that
pervasive paranoia which is a prime reason for
Pakistani duplicity in foreign affairs.

But let’s start at Pakistan’s beginning. In 1947
Pakistan included Bangladesh. When the
latter –then known as East Pakistan – seceded in
1971, Pakistan felt betrayed by the distinct absence
of American support. But by that date, the seeds of
insecurity and duplicity had long since been planted.

A decade earlier, on May 1, 1960, Pakistan and
the U.S. had colluded by sending an American U-2
aircraft to spy on the U.S.S.R. Amidst much
fanfare, Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev
announced that the Soviets shot down that
aircraft and captured its pilot. The U.S.
denied that it had sent a spy plane. The U.S.
denied that the pilot, Gary Powers, was a
CIA agent. The U.S. affirmatively asserted that
a “weather plane” had "strayed" into Soviet
airspace and had crashed “due to oxygen problems.”

To its great embarrassment, the U.S. version of
that U-2 incident was soon exposed to the world
as a series of naked fabrications. Pakistan
learned about diplomatic disinformation and
duplicity from that incident. But what is little
known is that America’s U-2 spy plane actually
took off from a Pakistani air base near Peshawar.
In fact, U.S. President Dwight Eisenhower had
previously received express permission from the
Pakistani Prime Minister authorizing such spy
flights from Pakistan.

So, five years later, when Pakistan went to war
withIndia, Pakistan could have reasonably
anticipated American support. Wrong. The United
States stayed neutral. Thus, the seeds of
insecurity and duplicity were implanted into
the Pakistani mentality.

Then, in the 1980s, Pakistan and the U.S.
cooperated to arm and train mujahideen to
fight the Soviets in Afghanistan. But when
America learned that Pakistan had developed
a successful nuclear capacity, the United
States responded with sanctions and cut off
economic assistance. The seeds of Pakistan’s
insecurity and duplicity were ripening.

Not incidentally, India had already successfully
tested a nuclear "device” in 1974. In direct
response to that disturbing disclosure,
Pakistan’s then Prime Minister,Ali Bhutto,
asserted that Pakistan must develop its own
"Islamic bomb." As such, Pakistani paranoia
with India was further exacerbated when
Pakistan's perceived security was imperiled
by a "Hindu bomb."

Time passed. When America entered Afghanistan
to root out al-Qaeda after 9/11, Pakistan
appeared willing to aid U.S. efforts. America
needed Pakistani supply routes. It got them.
America needed to attack terrorist sanctuaries
in Pakistan's tribal areas. Pakistan tacitly
consented. But Pakistan was not pleased with
the infringement on its territorial
sovereignty. This circumstance has further
fertilized the seeds of Pakistani insecurity
and diplomatic duplicity.

At the very same time that Pakistan was
seemingly supporting American objectives
in Afghanistan, Pakistan was also providing
aid and support to the Taliban. That was hardly
news to the Americans. Indeed, the Taliban –to
the extent that such a monolithic entity
exists- is predominantly comprised of ethnic
Pashtuns. There are eleven million Pashtuns
in Afghanistan. But there are also
thirty-two million Pashtuns living right
across the border in Pakistan.

The Pashtuns are tribal brothers. The
arbitrary border aka The Durand Line)
between Pakistan and Afghanistan is a
diplomatic fiasco to the Pashtuns. More
pointedly, Afghanistan has never
recognized the validity of the border with
Pakistan. In fact, Pakistan and Afghanistan
almost went to war in the 1950s over the
Pashtun desire for the creation of an
independent Pashtunistan. That proposed
entity would have comprised half of
Afghanistan plus much of western Pakistan.
Pakistan's territorial integrity was
again imperiled.

Considering that scenario combined with
the omnipresence of the Pashtun/Taliban in
that region, Pakistani cooperation with
the Taliban was almost a given. As such,
Pakistan currently provides succor to
the Haqqani network, a Pakistani-based
and al-Qaeda affilliated fighting force
of Pashtun/Taliban that targets the U.S.
military in Afghanistan.

Not unexpectedly, the Haqqani network has
been quite immune from attack by the
Pakistani military. It is, therefore, not
only conceivable, but also quite probable
that the whereabouts of Mullah Omar are
hidden in a web of Pakistani connivance.
So, the seeds of Pakistani duplicity
continue to ripen.

All this returns us to Pakistan’s fear
of Hindu domination and paranoia about India.
As a by-product of Pakistan's pathology,
both India and Pakistan have abundant reason
to cultivate relations with Afghanistan. The
Pakistani tie with the Afghani Pashtuns is
a familial bond of Pashtun brotherhood.
That bond is combined with Pakistan's need
for strategic depth in Afghanistan
as a defense to a future confrontation with India.

But India is all too cognizant of Pakistan's
paranoia about Hindu domination. As a result,
India has consciously crafted a policy
calculated to encircle Pakistan via a plethora
of Indian enterprises throughout Afghanistan.
These enterprises are designed to ingratiate
India with Afghanistan. India’s sole purpose
is to deprive Pakistan of the strategic depth
which it deems absolutely criticalto its survival.

To Pakistan’s chagrin, India’s endeavors in
Afghanistan have been conspicuously fruitful.
This success prompted Pakistan to dispatch a
fifty-six page document to the U.S. urging the
Americans to get India out of Afghanistan.

India's successes in Afghanistan also prompted
General Stanley McCrystal, then the U.S.
commander in Afghanistan, to author a sixty-six
page report to the U.S. administration. In that
2010 report, McCrystal asserted that:
"Unbridled Indian interference is pushing the
chaos in Afghanistan to the point of being
intractable." Premises considered,
Pakistan has ample reason to fear encirclement
by its arch enemy. In the process, Pakistani
paranoia has been further fueled.

Additionally, Pakistan knows that India has
actually reached a formal understanding with Iran
about Pakistan. Iran agreed that if and when
Pakistan ever attacks India, then India -by treaty-
can use Iranian territory to flank Pakistan, enter
Afghanistan via Iran and thence proceed on to
Islamabad. The result is enhanced Pakistani
insecurity and heightened paranoia.

To rub salt in the wounds of Pakistani
insecurity, the United States surreptitiously
(but with abundant justification) flaunted
Pakistani territorial sovereignty to get Bin
Laden. At the same time, the Pakistanis
correctly perceive that the United States has
been and is cozying up to India. The impact
of these circumstances is foreseeable. Pakistan
will become more paranoid about India and
even more duplicitous in its relations
with America.

So, a critical question looms. Will Pakistan,
the Islamic nation afflicted by the world’s worst
case of paranoia and owner of the world’s worst
record on nuclear proliferation, deteriorate into
a rogue, nuclear-armed, jihadist state?