Pakistan Is No Wonderland

When Alice In Wonderland proclaimed that matters were becoming curiouser and curiouser, she could have been ruminating about Pakistan. Just a fleeting glance Through The (geopolitical) Looking Glass reveals that virtually every aspect of life in Pakistan is beset by some level of consternation, confusion and commotion, often bordering on chaos. The disarray afflicting Pakistan could even make the March Hare’s delirious confusion more disturbing. Assuredly, Pakistan’s profusion of disorder would make the Mad Hatter’s eccentric behavior almost seem tame.

Yet in light -or in spite- of the foregoing, the Obama Administration has now announced plans to send 4.3 billion dollars in aid to Pakistan. Given this substantial bequest of American taxpayer funds, it seems fitting to examine the plight of Pakistan in greater detail. In fact, Richard Holbrooke, America’s special envoy to Pakistan, recently addressed an influential group of Pakistanis and queried: “What is the crisis of Pakistan?” One wonders if the responses he received included the following concerns.

Pakistan’s most pressing problem may be the rapid spread of Afghanistan’s Taliban insurgency into and across north-west Pakistan. That concern is exacerbated by the fact that Pakistan’s notorious ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence Agency) has been flagrantly lending succor and support to the Taliban. Pakistan’s President has admitted that militants hold “huge amounts of land.” The Obama Administration has openly conceded the bitter truth of these egregious circumstances. Yet, while the U.S. is sending more and more troops to fight the Taliban in Afghanistan, projected U. S. aid to Pakistan may well –at least indirectly- aid the Taliban. Curiouser and Curiouser.

The threat of anarchy poses another problem for Pakistan. It is little reported, but there have been more than sixty suicide bombings during the past two years in Pakistan. Attacks on government entities and roadside bombs are almost daily events. There is an incipient revolt brewing in the Pakistani state of Baluchistan. The Lashkar-e-Toiba terrorist group (which admittedly supplied the operational know-how and training for last November’s terrorist attack on Mumbai) continues to operate and retains substantial support among Pakistan’s ISI.

And, of course, it was less than a year ago that Pakistan’s government was rocked by the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. Her husband (Ali Zadari), Pakistan’s current president, also fears for his life. He may have good cause. Eighty-one percent of Pakistanis dislike him. Additionally, Zadari is at visceral odds with Nawaz Sharif, his bitter and popular political opponent. The latter (Sharif) likes to remind his adversaries of his bold decision (when he was Pakistan’s Prime Minister) to test a Pakistani nuclear device in 1998 despite threats from the world powers. One wonders what Sharif now thinks about Iran’s nuclear ambitions? Lest we forget, the Sunni (Moslem) Pakistanis already possess the nuclear device to which its neighboring Shia (Moslem) Iranians so assiduously aspire. And there is certainly no love lost between the Sunnis and the Shia.

Of equal interest, Mr. Sharif heads up Pakistan’s Muslin League. The Pakistani Muslim League has its roots in the All-India Muslim League. The latter was founded in 1906 to protect the interests of Muslims in what was then British India. In 1940, the Muslim League adopted the Lahore Resolution (usually referred to as the "Pakistan Resolution") and successfully spearheaded the movement for the creation of an independent homeland for Indian Muslims, i.e. Pakistan. But, then, the tension between Pakistan’s Moslems and Hindu India is yet another major issue that has long beset and befogged Pakistani affairs. Kashmir is the face of that issue.

Jammu & Kashmir, as that region is properly known, is India’s only Muslim majority state. That situation –in and of itself- has major implications for other areas of India which are heavily populated by 154 million Moslems. Still, while India controls most of Kashmir, Pakistan has –not without substantial justification- historically laid claim to every inch of Kashmir. Clearly, most Kashmiris (including virtually all Kashmiri Muslims) resent being a part of India. If Kashmiris would be allowed to vote (as India originally promised, but which promise has never been kept), Kashmiris would undoubtedly vote to secede from India. Whether they would choose to join Pakistan is quite another matter.

That said, neither India nor Pakistan is prepared to relinquish their continually contentious -and often volatile- claims to Kashmir. On one side of the issue, the Pakistani military has a decided predilection to antagonize India. That attitude is predicated upon the belief that Hindu India was and is Pakistan’s mortal enemy.

On the other hand, India is fully aware that the major rivers (the Indus tributaries) feeding Pakistan flow through the Indian-controlled vale of Kashmir. The implications to Pakistan of this geopolitical circumstance are all too clear. As such, it is unlikely that India will ever permit the Kashmiris to vote or that India will ever make serious concessions to Pakistan on Kashmir. If conceivable, the Palestinian-Israeli issue may be easier to resolve. One wonders if that is why Sen. Mitchell was sent to the Mideast and Mr. Holbrooke was sent to Pakistan?

Of course, all the foregoing assumes an awareness of the presence of Islamist terrorists (probably including al-Qaeda and Osama) in Pakistan’s tribal area where the Wuziristan region borders Afghanistan. To suggest that this area is akin to America’s old wild west is to severely understate the unruly realities on the ground north, west and south of Peshawar. For the record, Peshawar is no shrinking violet when it comes to rough and rowdy towns.

Need it also be said that Pakistan is anything-but-immune to the global economic slowdown. Thus, about one third of Pakistan’s textile factories have ceased operations. Notably, Pakistan’s textile industry provides a virtual majority of industrial employment in Pakistan. Textiles are also the source of approximately half of Pakistan’s foreign-exchange earnings. As a proximate result of this state of economic disarray, Pakistan had to plead to the International Monetary Fund for a 7.6 billion dollar bailout to avoid defaulting on its external debt. Undaunted, the USA is still about to funnel many more billions into Pakistani coffers. Curiouser and curiouser. Still, is throwing good money after bad a proper political prerequisite given the exigencies in Pakistan? That’s a riddle worthy of the Mad Hatter.

In the final analysis, it is perhaps best to return to the plight of Alice in Wonderland. She was famously asked by the Mad Hatter: “Why is a raven like a writing desk?” Having received no reply, the Mad Hatter then queried Alice: “Have you guessed the riddle yet?” “No, I give up,” Alice replied. “What’s the answer?” To which the Mad Hatter promptly responded: “I haven’t the slightest idea.” Regrettably, the same can be said about resolving the pressing problems in Pakistan!