Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Dragon Breath And Bear Claws

What do bears and dragons have in common? Nothing. Well, not exactly. That’s only true if dragons are mythical animals. On the other hand, even if dragons are mythical, their contemporary manifestations are all too real.

Take a moment to think about bears and dragons. Real or mythical, they are dangerous. On the one hand, bears are not terribly subtle. They often seem clumsy. When agitated, they tend to maul anything that moves nearby. On the other hand, it is also never wise to antagonize a dragon. Dragons have bad breath. When stressed, they spew fire.

So, let’s talk bears and dragons. Does anyone remember the Russian Bear? Oh yes, it’s alive and well. It certainly was not hibernating while the Security Council was deliberating about Syria. When it came time to vote, the Russian Bear acted completely in character. It flat-out mauled the Security Council’s resolution with one swipe of its massive bear claw. How could even a casual observer not see that claw coming?

That said, is there any doubt about the rising reality of the Chinese Dragon? Of course not. In fact, the Chinese Dragon has a long standing pattern of passively prowling around while just watching and waiting to exhale fire. The Chinese expressly refer to that calculated behavior as Deng Xiaoping’s Twenty-four Character strategy.

Deng’s policy requires the Dragon to observe affairs calmly, to bide its time, to maintain a low profile and to never claim leadership. That is precisely how the Chinese Dragon conducted itself while the Security Council agonized about censuring Syria. Indeed, The Dragon was delighted to let the Russian Bear lead the veto and take considerable heat for opposing the proposed resolution.

In the aftermath of the Russian and Chinese vetoes, can anyone dispute the perilous reality of The Bear and The Dragon on prowl at the U.N.? Just ask, Susan Rice, the American Ambassador to the U.N. She literally fumed that the Russian Bear and the Chinese Dragon are absolutely “disgusting.” Did she expect something else from bear stench and dragon breath?

Ambassador Rice may not like dealing with The Bear and The Dragon. But she should have been wise enough not to even hope for their votes. Regrettably, the good Ambassador’s considerable pique suggests that she simply may not be sufficiently attuned to The Bear and The Dragon. Why else was she so viscerally upset when both Russia and China acted precisely as even a casual observer would have foreseen?

The Russian Bear has vested interests in Syria. It sells weapons to Syria. It does significant business with Syria. It has a budding naval base at Tartous, Syria. It has a long-standing relationship with Syria’s Alawite government. In fact, Russia has been aligned with Syria for decades. And not least of all, Russia does not have a reputation as a fickle friend. As such, The Bear’s veto was a foregone conclusion.

So, too was The Dragon’s veto. China has a long standing policy of strict non-intervention in the internal affairs of other nations. Even when The Dragon gives substantial aid to or invests big bucks in other countries, it expressly does so without conditions and without strings attached.

Ambassador Rice assuredly knows this about The Dragon. She surely knows that China refused to intervene with its client Sudan about the latter's unconscionable behavior in Darfur. She clearly knows that China was less-than-pleased with the West’s armed intervention that helped topple Qadaffi. Indeed, she knows that neither China nor Russia voted for the U.N. resolution upon which NATO relied to bomb Libya.

Maybe it’s simply that Ambassador Rice was too focused on toppling the al-Assad regime. Maybe she did not properly pause to appreciate precisely what the Russian Bear and the Chinese Dragon are really all about. Perhaps she was just peeved that The Bear and The Dragon screwed up her hard work to pressure Syria to alter its reprehensible behavior. Ms. Rice must have harbored fond hopes that this time The Bear and The Dragon would act conscionably. Wrong!

The problem is that the Russian Bear and the Chinese Dragon naturally comport themselves as do bears and dragons. That is precisely why they are known as The Russian Bear and The Chinese Dragon. Their behaviors do not arise out of concerned conscience. They do not pontificate. Their acts are not grounded in compassion. Their comportment is not calculated to empathize, moralize or democratize.

Quite the contrary. The Russian Bear and The Chinese Dragon are named for creatures consumed with self-interest and self-preservation. They –those animals, the Russians and the Chinese – customarily pursue their objectives ruthlessly and relentlessly.

That said, it is no wonder that the Russian Bear saw fit to bare its claws at the Security Council. It was not at all unexpected that the Chinese Dragon would consort with the Russian Bear to extrude its own considerable talons. Regrettably, the American Eagle’s wings were also summarily –if temporarily- clipped at last Saturday’s session of the U.N. Security Council.

What does that say about the American Eagle’s ability to effectively launch itself into more critical matters? Can and will The Eagle confront Iran’s drive to join Club Nuke?

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