Whose Lunch Is The Dragon Eating?

China! Now that’s an economic, demographic and geopolitical mouthful. In fact, China is a much bigger now than it ever used to be. O.K., so China is not getting geographically larger, but it is growing in virtually every other respect.

But wait, the Chinese prefer to say that China is rising. That’s a semantic nicety. It’s an artful euphemism. It’s a diplomatically astute technique that cleverly deflects the world’s attention from the fact that China is expanding everywhere. The Chinese Dragon is desperately trying to satiate its prodigious appetite for resources. In short, the Chinese Dragon is eating the world’s lunch.

Now, let’s be crystal clear. The Chinese Dragon has a right to eat lunch. In fact, the self-interests of the Chinese Dragon do not differ dramatically from the self-preservation needs of the Russian Bear or the American Eagle. But with about nine times Russia’s population and four times the number of Americans, the Chinese Dragon needs a whole lot more to eat to keep it happy. And, that’s not necessarily a bad thing. But seeing the Chinese Dragon gobble up resources is not easy to watch. It’s a scenario that merits closer inspection.

Take a minute and consider the Burmese. You may remember them. They share a border with China. They now call their country Myanmar. Well, most everyone calls it Myanmar except its most famous citizen, Aung San Suu Kyi, who still calls it Burma.

Burma is rich in natural resources. Burma has the oil, gas, timber, minerals and water resources that the Dragon eyes with envy. So, the Dragon eagerly chose to construct the 3.6 billion dollar Myistone dam on Burma’s Irrawaddy River. China had also begun building oil and gas pipelines across the old Burma Road into China. That pipeline project costs 2.5 billion dollars. In the process, the Dragon will get oil, gas and hydro-electric resources while the Burmese will get cash. Sounds good, but not so fast.

The Burmese may be poor, but they are not dumb. The Myistone dam would have destroyed one of the world’s most bio-diverse hotspots. It would have displaced ten thousand Kachin tribesmen, submerged many of their unique cultural heritage sites and flooded the rain forest.

Amazingly, Burma's ruling junta (now cloaked in civilian garb) just nixed the whole dam project while it was being built. That ticked off the Chinese Dragon which will lose both its multi-billion dollar investment and the hydro-electricity that would have been generated, 90% of which was to be sent to China. But, as many Burmese fumed: “Dam be damned!”

So, what made the Burmese abruptly alter course and risk the ire of the Dragon? That’s easy. To paraphrase the Burmese: “We got tired of the Dragon trotting into our kitchen, eating our lunch and then leaving the rubbish.” That is certainly a simplification of what happened. But, to the Dragon’s chagrin, the Irrawaddy dam project is now on indefinite hold.

The oil/gas pipeline projects across Burma from the Andaman Sea into China are now also undergoing extensive scrutiny and reconsideration. The Dragon is anxiously watching those developments. Those oil/gas pipelines would save China 1,200 kilometers of transport across sea lanes through the Strait of Malacca. Those pipelines, once operational, would have mitigated China’s worrisome “Malacca dilemma.” The demise of the pipeline projects would be a significant and strategic loss to the Dragon. Can you feel hot Dragon breath?

The Mekong River is another case in point. It is another “resource” that the Dragon wants to drink. So, what’s going on with the Mekong? Well, for starters, the Mekong is not just a Vietnamese river. Quite the contrary, about half of the mighty Mekong flows through China where the Mekong is known as the Lancang River.

What’s the problem? The Mekong is Vietnam’s lifeblood. But the Mekong is now experiencing its lowest water level in fifty years. Less water means less fish. Less fish mean less fishermen. Less water also means less irrigation. Less irrigation yields less rice. Less water means less shrimp. Less fish, less shrimp and less rice mean less commerce. The Vietnamese are justifiably concerned. Enter the Dragon.

Back up in China on the Lancang River, the Dragon is watching the completion of the Xiowan dam. When completed this spring, it will be as tall as the Eiffel tower, i.e. about as tall as a 100 story skyscraper. The Xiowan Dam will create a lake that is 820 feet deep. More importantly, the dam will further deplete the amount of water flowing down the Mekong into Vietnam. Do you catch my drift: Less water less….

Not unexpectedly, the Dragon did not consult the Vietnamese Tiger about the dam’s ominous repercussions. In fact, the Dragon has repeatedly refused to enter into a single water-sharing agreement with any of the Dragon’s riparian neighbors. In fact, in its thirst for water resources, the Dragon has become the world’s most aggressive water hegemon. Still, the Dragon needs water to drink. That is elementary to the Dragon’s very survival.

And so it goes. The Dragon must drink and the Dragon must eat. Indeed, the Chinese Dragon has a prodigious thirst and a voracious appetite. That should leave the rest of the world wondering: Whose lunch will the Dragon eat next?