It is hardly news that the Ukraine has been -and seemingly
continues to be- teetering on the brink of a geopolitical crevasse.
But whose fault is
that?
The West blames Russian meddling for much of
Ukraine’s
turmoil. Conversely, Russia is adamant that Ukraine’s plight is
attributable to the West’s perverse wrong-doing. So, who is right?
That may
depend on whether the respondent is a Russophobe or
a
Russophile.
So, what do Russophobes and Russophiles have
in common?
Almost nothing except that both stumble in blinkered
attitudes
about Russia. Their approaches are diametrically opposite. Both
groups
address the identical realities. But because of their
predispositions, both
reach wholly different conclusions. One
approach must be right and the other
must be wrong. Right?
Wrong!
Wrong!
The raw reality is that geopolitical affairs
are notoriously
complex, convoluted and contradictory. There can be multiple
correct answers to a single question. Russia’s behavior regarding
the Ukraine and the West’s hostile reaction thereto are a splendid,
but distressing, case in point.
complex, convoluted and contradictory. There can be multiple
correct answers to a single question. Russia’s behavior regarding
the Ukraine and the West’s hostile reaction thereto are a splendid,
but distressing, case in point.
In actuality, facts –be they in Russia, in
the Ukraine or in the
West – are always subject to compound interpretations. Realities
differ based on divergent perspectives. Precisely how facts are
marshalled, analyzed and comprehended often depends upon
whose ox is being gored.
West – are always subject to compound interpretations. Realities
differ based on divergent perspectives. Precisely how facts are
marshalled, analyzed and comprehended often depends upon
whose ox is being gored.
Let’s start with the Ukraine. It is lurching
perilously toward
bankruptcy. Is that also Russia’s fault? Or is that
approaching
economic disaster a product of Ukraine’s traditionally corrupt
politicians and equally avaricious oligarchs? Not incidentally,
Viktor
Yanukovych, Ukraine’s ousted President, owned a yacht
aptly named “the
Bandido.”
That said, the Ukraine owes $7.5 billion to
Russia for the natural
gas that Ukrainians consumed in costly gulps. Did that
mountainous debt arise from the already high gas price ($268.50
per thousand cubic meters) that Russia charged Ukraine in 2013?
mountainous debt arise from the already high gas price ($268.50
per thousand cubic meters) that Russia charged Ukraine in 2013?
[That price recently went up this month by 44%
to $385.50 per
cubic meter.] Or is the existing massive debt to Russia attributable
to the Ukrainians’ astoundingly profligate use of gas that Kiev
heavily subsidizes?
cubic meter.] Or is the existing massive debt to Russia attributable
to the Ukrainians’ astoundingly profligate use of gas that Kiev
heavily subsidizes?
Alternatively, is that gas debt issue
muddled by the inexplicable
circumstance in which the Ukraine still does not
have meters at
the points where gas pipelines enter Ukraine from Russia? That
absurd situation renders suspect all discourse about “use versus
abuse” or about
“quantity versus price.” An unblinkered
perspective points the finger of fault in every direction.
perspective points the finger of fault in every direction.
Indeed, is the International Monetary Fund
(arguably an appendage
of the West) not also accountable in that scurrilous
matter? Did the
IMF not approve a loan of $15.1 billion to Ukraine in 2010 for the
express purpose of putting
Ukraine on the path to fiscal s
ustainability by reforming the gas sector?
ustainability by reforming the gas sector?
But Ukraine has plenty of daunting problems
not attributable to
either Russia or the West. Ever since independence, Ukraine has
been split into the industrial, Russian-speaking East, the
Ukrainian-speaking, pro-European, nationalist-oriented West and
the ethnically Russian Crimea.
either Russia or the West. Ever since independence, Ukraine has
been split into the industrial, Russian-speaking East, the
Ukrainian-speaking, pro-European, nationalist-oriented West and
the ethnically Russian Crimea.
It is little recognized that Ukraine’s East
and West not only speak
different languages, but also attend different churches
and pay
obeisance to different national heroes. But at least a major
commonality
between East and West was that both deemed Kiev
to be their bona fide capitol. Now even that
has changed.
Once Yanukovych was ousted, the Rada
(Ukraine’s Parliament
which meets in Kiev) voted to strike Russian from the list
of
Ukraine’s official languages. That unseemly provocation to
Russian-speaking Ukrainians can hardly be attributed to Russian
meddling in Ukrainian affairs. But Russian-speaking Ukrainians
did detect the hand of the West [aka C.I.A.] in that mischievous
maneuver.
Ukraine’s official languages. That unseemly provocation to
Russian-speaking Ukrainians can hardly be attributed to Russian
meddling in Ukrainian affairs. But Russian-speaking Ukrainians
did detect the hand of the West [aka C.I.A.] in that mischievous
maneuver.
That circumstance prompted Russian speakers
in Karkiv, the first
capitol of Soviet Ukraine, to demonstrate against Kiev’s
“fascist
collaborators” with NATO and the West. It was hardly
coincidental that the Karkiv protest was conducted adjacent to that
city’s prominent statue of Lenin.
coincidental that the Karkiv protest was conducted adjacent to that
city’s prominent statue of Lenin.
So, on to the West and its hostility to
Russia’s alleged escapades in
and around the Ukraine. Perhaps Germany’s
ambivalent reaction is
the most illuminating. Indeed, Germany’s reluctance to
support
sanctions is a major factor limiting the viability of the West’s
economic counter-attack against Russia’s undertakings in and
around the
Ukraine.
Pointedly, Germany alone exported $48
billion worth of vehicles,
tools and chemicals to Russia in 2013. Compare that
to the
relatively meagre $40 billion in trade that the United States does
with Russia. Furthermore, trade between Russia and the EU is ten
times greater than that between the USA and Russia.
relatively meagre $40 billion in trade that the United States does
with Russia. Furthermore, trade between Russia and the EU is ten
times greater than that between the USA and Russia.
Even dyed-in-the-wool Russophobics cannot
fail to see that Europe
is dramatically more economically intertwined with
Russia than is
America. That naked reality means that American sanctions against
Russia will be virtually toothless absent unified European collaboration.
Even more critically, German businessmen
stridently oppose harsh
sanctions. Chancellor Merkel is well attuned to the
sobering fact
that retaliatory sanctions would imperil 300,000 German jobs that
could rapidly disappear in the absence of Russian trade.
that retaliatory sanctions would imperil 300,000 German jobs that
could rapidly disappear in the absence of Russian trade.
But that is merely the tip of an economic
iceberg that could ram
thebow of Germany’s commercial ship of state. Germans own
6,200 businesses that operate in Russia where they have invested
almost $40 billion. Those investments would be jeopradized by
serious anti-Russian sanctions.
thebow of Germany’s commercial ship of state. Germans own
6,200 businesses that operate in Russia where they have invested
almost $40 billion. Those investments would be jeopradized by
serious anti-Russian sanctions.
Most critically to Germany, it depends upon
Russia for about
35% of the gas and oil that heats Germany and greases the German
35% of the gas and oil that heats Germany and greases the German
economy. Absent those energy supplies, Germany’s physical and
economic
well-being would be sorely afflicted, if not imperiled.
Ms. Merkel cannot
countenance and will not inflict such adversity
upon her constituents.
While Ms. Merkel is certainly no Russophile,
she is a geopolitical
pragmatist. She understands the Russian mentality. She
grew up in
communist East Germany. She knows that the Crimea became part
of
Russia when it was conquered during the reign of
Catherine-The-Great. It is not
happenstance that the latter was a
German-born princess whose portrait now sits
handsomely on
Ms. Merkel’s desk.
Chancellor Merkel also knows that Vladimir
Putin was a KGB
spy in Dresden, that he speaks German fluently and that a
portrait
of Peter-The-Great hangs in Vladimir’s office. It is also no
coincidence that Peter-The-Great is Vladimir Putin’s role model
of an
expansionist emperor. So, Ms. Merkel has no illusions about
Russian aspirations or why the
cagey Mr. Putin will not willingly
consent to the Ukraine's slide into the E.U.’s
orbit.
That said, other E.U. nations would suffer
even greater ills if the
spigot to their energy supplies was suddenly turned
off. Estonia,
Latvia, Lithuania, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Bulgaria are all
99% dependent on Russian gas. Even Poland, Austria, Romania
and Greece rely on
Russia for more than 59% of the gas they
need to function. Do American leaders seriously think that these
E.U. nations will turn their backs on Russia simply to gratify
America’s Russophobic predispositions?
need to function. Do American leaders seriously think that these
E.U. nations will turn their backs on Russia simply to gratify
America’s Russophobic predispositions?
While speaking of predispositions about
Russian behavior, it is
worth noting that the other three B.R.I.C. nations
(Brazil, India
and China, i.e. about 40% of the world’s population) have been
at
pains not to decry Russia’s Ukranian escapades. Those nations
are neither
Russophiles nor Russophobic.
Rather, those nations practice geopolitics
in the very same
arena in which Russia plays a not unsimilar game by similar
self-regulating rules. China’s aggressive conduct in the East and
South China Seas comes immediately to mind. In that context, is
it any wonder that China chooses to happily spectate while Russia
and the West compete on the Ukrainian playing field.
arena in which Russia plays a not unsimilar game by similar
self-regulating rules. China’s aggressive conduct in the East and
South China Seas comes immediately to mind. In that context, is
it any wonder that China chooses to happily spectate while Russia
and the West compete on the Ukrainian playing field.
In sum, it is unlikely that Russophiles and Russophobes will ever
agree on what the real facts are about Russia and West’s conduct
regarding the Ukraine. But both should both be advised, as Tom
Clancy pointed out in The Hunt For Red October: “... that one
must know something of the truth in order to lie convincingly.”