Tuesday, June 10, 2014

Blind Satellites, Sightless Radar & Flight MH370


Back in the fifties, Walter Cronkite narrated a series of television
docudramas known as “You Are There!” Those programs reenacted
major events in history. Early episodes examined “The Assassination
Of Julius Caesar,” “The Boston Tea Party” and “The Final Hours
Of Joan Of Arc.”

Perhaps fittingly, the very first episode was The Landing of
the Hindenberg at Lakehurst, New Jersey.The Hindenburg
disaster happened on 6 May 1937. That is when German airship
LZ129 caught fire and was destroyed during its attempt to dock
at the Lakehurst Naval Air Station. Of the 97 people on board,
there were 35 fatalities.

That disaster was the subject of spectacular news coverage.
There were at least seven wholly divergent theories about
what really caused that fatal fire. Those hypotheses ranged
from sabotage, to lightning, to structural failure to a deliberate
act of suicide. The cause of the Hindenberg disaster remains
an unsolved mystery. Fast forward to 8 March 2014 and a
continuing contemporary mystery.

In the early hours of that date, Malaysian Flight MH370
was cruising high above the Gulf of Thailand between Vietnam
and Malaysia. Then, suddenly, it was not there. It was not anywhere.
It had simply disappeared.  But, ala Walter Cronkite and “You Are
There,” I was there! In fact, I was on a ship sailing almost directly
below Malaysia MH370 when it mysteriously went silent.

It is now almost three months since that Boeing 777 with
239 passengers vanished out of the thin air in which it was flying.
Its whereabouts remain a mystery unsolved by any of the many
theories and hypotheses concerning how it disappeared, why it simply
vanished and where it is.

Then on 27 May 2014, Malaysia finally released a forty-seven page
report prepared by Inmarsat. The report features hourly “handshakes”
– aka network log-on confirmations – after MH 370 disappeared from
civilian radar screens on that fateful night over the Gulf of Thailand.

Interestingly, Inmarsat’s Chief Engineer noted that: “These 47 pages
represent all the data communication logs we have in relation for
MH370 and that last flight.” But, quite pointedly, he candidly also
confirmed that Malaysia's release of Inmarsat's satellite data "would
not be enough for independent researchers to replicate the calculations."
Why so?

It is now crystal clear that the needed assumptions, algorithms
and metadata to validate the investigators' conclusion are blatantly
and flagrantly absent from the materials released by Malaysian
authorities. As such, the mystery of Malaysian Flight MH370 has
been obtusely compounded and dramatically obfuscated.

Is that because, as many speculate, some governments refuse
to release all the data or other needed information on the satellite
system because of commercial or national security reasons?
The public may never know. A pity it is!

But, as many of you may be aware, I have been and continue to
be among those who are vociferously incredulous at the malignant
disinformation, premeditated misinformation and preposterous
obfuscation that has surrounded missing Malaysian Flight MH370.

It is thus that I took particular notice of recent comments by Ofer
Doron, CEO of Israel Aerospace Industries’ HALAL plant.  He
addressed Israel’s use of surveillance satellites in general and the
Ofeq-10 satellite in particular. The Ofeq-10, produced by Israel
Aerospace Industries, is one of the world’s most advanced satellites
and is capable of producing high quality imagery under any climatic
conditions.

Israel now has optical surveillance satellites and radar surveillance
satellites in space. Indeed, only a small fraternity of nations possess
such space capabilities. Israel –and presumably other nations- can
now position a satellite wherever they want and see whatever they
want to see.

Even more poignantly, one of the aspects currently evolving in the field
of surveillance satellites is the issue of sub-meter resolution imagery
capabilities, namely – images with the resolution of less than one meter.
Only three countries have these capabilities, i.e. America, France and Israel.

Doron noted that Israel belongs to a very small club of very high resolution
imagery capabilities. That is an issue that is becoming increasingly important
to intelligence. In fact, a new satellite Israel intends to launch will put it in
second place. Doron says China and Russia lag far behind.

The Israeli satellites are different in their operating philosophy, too.
While other countries scan large areas, the Israeli satellites are
intelligence-oriented.  Doron noted that: “We manufacture satellites
for intelligence purposes, namely – for the purpose of photographing
the targets where they are located.”

The satellite market is also a geopolitical market. Not unlike the
purchase of fighter aircraft, the purchasing of satellites often is mostly
a political decision. Whoever buys a satellite, buys it for national needs,
be they civil or defense. Doron even noted that: “We are working with
France on a scientific surveillance satellite branded ‘Venus’ that would
be capable of telling…whether you need to irrigate or fertilize a field –
all from space.”

So, extrapolating from all this highly sophisticated satellite technology
(which provides the capacity for a satellite to see wherever and whatever
it wants to see), the matter of missing Malaysia Flight MH 370 resurrects
itself as follows:  

1.   Multiple nations possess unusually advanced satellite technology

2.   Nations use satellites not only for civilian purposes, but most especially
     for military objectives

3.   No nation wittingly reveals the full extent of its military capabilities

4.   Concealing what a satellite saw about MH370 is arguably a
     matter of national security

5.   Malaysia Flight MH 370 disappeared somewhere near the
    Strait of Malacca

6.   The Strait of Malacca is the world’s most heavily-trafficked
     commercial chokepoint

7.   Depending on who is counting, about seventy-four thousand
    ships– most with radar- pass thru the Strait of Malacca each year

8.   Passage through the Strait of Malacca is absolutely critical to the
     very survival of China, Japan and So. Korea

9.   Multiple satellites & radars were assuredly focused on, at and
     above the Strait of Malacca as MH370 flew over it.
       
But somehow not one satellite and not a single radar saw anything and
nobody knows nothing. Horse Hockey!

 

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